THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF RUSSIA - UKRAINE WAR IN NIGERIA

Abstract

The increasing interconnectedness of the global economy has made national economies increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical conflicts occurring beyond their borders. Against this backdrop, this study examined the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the Nigerian economy, with particular emphasis on trade and investment, foreign direct investment (FDI), and the implications for economic growth, poverty reduction, and job creation. The study was anchored on the Mercantilist Theory of Trade and Investment, Comparative Advantage Theory, and the Heckscher–Ohlin Trade Theory, which collectively explain the dynamics of international trade, investment flows, and the transmission of external economic shocks across interconnected economies. A qualitative research design was adopted, while data were collected through semi-structured interviews from ten purposively selected respondents drawn from relevant public and private institutions in Lagos State, Nigeria. The data were analysed using thematic analysis with the aid of NVivo software. The findings revealed that the Russia–Ukraine conflict significantly disrupted Nigeria's trade relations and supply chains, resulting in reduced imports and exports, declining foreign direct investment, heightened business uncertainty, rising inflation, and increased production costs. The study further established that the energy, manufacturing, agriculture, transportation, infrastructure, and logistics sectors were among the most affected, with the adverse effects extending to economic growth, employment generation, and poverty reduction. The study concludes that Nigeria's heavy dependence on imported strategic commodities and external markets has heightened its vulnerability to global geopolitical crises. It recommends accelerated economic diversification, strengthened domestic industrial production, improved investment promotion, expanded regional trade partnerships, and sound fiscal and monetary policies to enhance economic resilience against future external shocks.